In 1679, Dutch explorers reached Australia and observed the first black swan known to Western civilization. This discovery became something of a scientific phenomenon, going against a deeply held cultural, and perhaps innate, belief that what has already happened, or what usually happens, is a guide to what will happen. Scottish philosopher David Hume, an early and profound influence on the development of the scientific method, formalized the argument against inductive inference, declaring in 1739 that it was illogical to rely on past observations to predict the future.
This article was written by and originally published by The Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists.
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