The Current Rise In Mortgage Rates Is Unlike Anything In History

By U Cast Studios
June 21, 2022

The Current Rise In Mortgage Rates Is Unlike Anything In History
Image Courtesy Of Mish Talk

In percentage terms, and that matters to borrowers used to cheap rates, the current rise in mortgage rates is unprecedented.

This article was originally published by Mish Talk.

Largest Mortgage Rate Swings in History 

  • In 18 months, the year-over-year percentage change in rates went from -27.8 percent to positive 80.4 percent, a swing of 108.2 percentage points.
  • The December 2020 decline of 27.8 percent is the largest decline in history.
  • The June 2022 year-over-year rise of 80.4% is the largest rise in history.

Monthly Average Mortgage Rate Percent 

Mortgage rates from Freddie Mac via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish

Mortgage rates from Freddie Mac via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish

Highest Rate in 11 Years 

5.37 percent is not a high rate historically, but it is the highest rate since 5.42 percent in June 2009.

Moreover, one cannot get anything close to that rate now. That’s a Freddie Mac weekly average rate from early June and it is very stale.

Mortgage News Daily Rates 

Chart from Mortgage News Daily annotations by Mish.

Chart from Mortgage News Daily annotations by Mish.

As of June 21, the average mortgage rate is 6.07 percent, up from 3.26 percent a year ago.

According to Freddie Mac, the annual average commitment rate across all of 2021 was 2.96%. Rates have now doubled.

New Home Sales Plunge 22.5% In April, 16.6% From Deep Negative Revisions

On May 24, I reported New Home Sales Plunge 22.5% In April, 16.6% From Deep Negative Revisions

New home sales have peaked this cycle and the bottom is nowhere in sight.

Existing Home Sales 

Existing home sales courtesy of Trading Economics annotations by Mish

Existing home sales courtesy of Trading Economics annotations by Mish

Existing Home Sales Skid Another 3.4 Percent in May

Existing home sales declined for the fourth month in May. Sales are down 16.8 percent since January.

Existing home sales are recorded at closing, new homes at signing. May sales reflect March and April’s mortgage rates, not June’s.

Expect sales to get worse, much worse.

For discussion, please see Existing Home Sales Skid Another 3.4 Percent in May, Down Fourth Month

Note that the Seventh Largest US Importer Cuts Shipments in Half, Shipping Rates Crash

With mortgage rates up 2.7 percentage points this year and doubling from the average for 2021, this bust is just getting started and with it the demand for goods.

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