Housing Starts Unexpectedly Weaken But Permits Soar To Recovery High

Housing starts unexpectedly decline 4.1 percent but permits rise 0.7 percent to a new recovery high.

Economists Expectations

• The Bloomberg Econoday economists’ consensus opinion was for housing permits to rise slightly from 1.702 million units, seasonally-adjusted annualized (SAAR) to 1.708 million units.
• The Econoday consensus was for permits to decline from 1.873 million units SAAR to 1.760 million units.

This article was originally published by Mish Talk.

New Residential Construction Report

The Census Department New Residential Construction Report for January shows economists were way off the mark.

Building Permits 

• Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,899,000. This is 0.7 percent above the revised December rate of 1,885,000 and is 0.8 percent above the January 2021 rate of 1,883,000.
• Single‐family authorizations in January were at a rate of 1,205,000; this is 6.8 percent above the revised December figure of 1,128,000.
• Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 629,000 in January.

Housing Starts 

• Privately‐owned housing starts in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,638,000. This is 4.1 percent below the revised December estimate of 1,708,000, but is 0.8 percent above the January 2021 rate of 1,625,000.
• Single‐family housing starts in January were at a rate of 1,116,000; this is 5.6 percent below the revised December figure of 1,182,000.
• The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 510,000.

Housing Completions

• Privately‐owned housing completions in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000. This is 5.2 percent below the revised December estimate of 1,315,000 and is 6.2 percent  below the January 2021 rate of 1,328,000.
• Single‐family housing completions in January were at a rate of 927,000; this is 7.3 percent below the revised December rate of 1,000,000.
• The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 309,000.

Long Term Picture

Completion Gap 

Note the huge gap between starts and completions.

Blame this on shortages of materials and labor, and also on prices, especially lumber.

Those delaying, expecting or hoping the price of lumber would continue to fall have had those hopes dashed.

I expect that completion gap will close, with starts plunging as mortgage rates climb, the economy heads into recession, and completions finish.