Economists expected a surge in new home sales in June. They missed the mark badly.
New Home Sales Seasonally-Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR)
The plunge in new home sales continues according to the Census Bureau’s New Residential Sales Report.
This article was originally published by Mish Talk.
From a peak of 993,000 SAAR in January, sales have declined to a below trend 676,000 SAAR in June.
Badly Missed Estimates
The Econoday consensus is amusing.
Massive Distortions of Reality
Seasonal adjustments distort the numbers badly. Covid distorted the numbers further.
To understand how much all one has to do is look at unadjusted numbers.
The bullet points for each of the charts is for the same month.
For example, there were actually example 60,000 homes sold in June. This was reported as 676,000 homes sold.
NSA vs SAAR Bullet Points
So no, we did not sell nearly a million homes in January, it was 77,000 (and likely to be revised).
Covid of course massively distorted the numbers.
Buying got pushed into colder months and seasonal adjustments made a mess of reporting.
All these numbers are heavily revised every month. This month I noticed a revision all the way back to January of 2018, over 3 years ago.
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