LinkUp has interesting charts on job openings. Let’s investigate.
LinkUp reports Job Openings Dropped 3% in June.
This article was originally published by Mish Talk.
In June, total job openings dropped 3% while new and removed jobs rose 1% and 3% respectively. Labor demand dropped 10% in the 2nd quarter and with the continued decline in total job openings in June, labor demand has returned once again to where it was last August.
LinkUp 10,000
More Weakness Expected
Based on our June data, we expect to see continued weakening in July’s jobs report that will be released August 5th.
LinkUp Methodology
The LinkUp 10,000 is an analytic, published both daily and monthly, that captures the sum total of U.S. job openings from the 10,000 global employers in LinkUp’s job search engine with the most U.S. job openings. Representing the entire U.S.
BLS JOLTS Methodology
Every month the BLS produces a Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
Timeliness
Along with the its July 7 post, LinkUp posted its job forecast for June.
Given the lag between job openings being posted on company websites and those jobs being filled with new hires, our non-farm payroll forecast for June is based on our data from May when new and total jobs dropped 9% and 5% respectively. As a result, we are forecasting a net gain of just 265,000 jobs in June.
Jobs Grow by 372,000 but Employment Shrinks by 315,000
Jobs vs Employment
On July 8, I reported Jobs Grow by 372,000 but Employment Shrinks by 315,000.
A recession has started yet jobs and employment have not yet returned to the pre-Covid high.
Employment has gone nowhere or down as jobs surge. The employment change since March is -347,000.
See the above link for details.
Expect a Long But Shallow Recession With Minimal Job Losses
Given hiring pressures and boomer retirements, Expect a Long But Shallow Recession With Minimal Job Losses
The stock market is another issue. For discussion, please see Artificial Wealth vs GDP: Why Earnings and the Stock Market Will Get Crushed.
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